Working papers

Privatization Reform and Trade Liberalization in China: A Quantitative Analysis (JMP) [New Draft Coming Soon!]

Earlier draft presented at: 2022 SEA 92rd Annual Conference, 2022 WEAI 97th Annual Conference.

Abstract: While previous research has explored the effects of privatization reform and trade liberalization on domestic markets, there remains a need for a thorough explanation of the interaction between these reforms and the underlying mechanisms.  To address this gap, I utilize a heterogeneous firms model that incorporates both private-owned enterprises and state-owned enterprises, and construct a privatization index that captures the degree of privatization in China.  I show that privatization reform also elicits a pro-competitive effect, similar to trade liberalization, which augments competition within domestic markets and boosts export performances. Using a merged Chinese data set, I estimate the privatization index and trade cost across different periods between 1998 and 2007. Counterfactual analysis indicates that, in the absence of privatization reforms, productivity growth from trade liberalization would have been 60 percent weaker and the percentage of export revenue would have been 12 percent lower. This examination also proposes that the government can counteract short-term decreases in consumer surplus and industrial labor outflows caused by domestic privatization reform by committing to trade liberalization, which provides an additional channel for gains from trade.

Quantifying U.S. GATT Trade Liberalization    (with Kristy Buzard and Ross Jestrab) [link]

Earlier draft presented at: 2023 Mid-West Trade Conference, 2021 SEA 91st Annual Conference,  2021 Canadian Economic Association Meetings 

Abstract: This paper studies U.S. trade policy from the Smoot-Hawley Tariffs through the 1947 General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. Given the recent return to broad-based import protection policies, it is more important than ever that we understand the historical dynamics behind the U.S.’s largest trade liberalization in the last century. Our novel dataset of product-level tariff commitments and imports enables the first detailed empirical study of this dynamic period in trade policy, providing new stylized facts about U.S. tariffs and empirical evidence that changes in these tariffs are consistent with predictions from the terms-of-trade theory.